January Market Update

We made it to 2025! Companies have been busy planning and preparing for a new year, and for the new freight market cycle. To help in that planning, I put together a panel of market experts on the Meet Me For Coffee Podcast channel that was held on January 07th. The following Newsletter is a written summary of the insights shared on the live show. If you prefer to also listen to the live show, it is linked here.

Meet the Speakers:

Ken Adamo

Ken Adamo is the Chief of Analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics, where he has served for over five years. In his current role, he oversees corporate development and partnerships in addition to leading analytics and research initiatives.

With over a decade of experience in the freight and logistics industry, Ken brings extensive expertise in pricing strategy and data science, making him a trusted voice in the field. His work at DAT and beyond reflects a deep commitment to leveraging data-driven insights to shape and optimize the freight marketplace.

Jason Miller

Jason Miller is the Eli Broad Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University. With a focus on economics, Jason combines academic research with practical insights to provide industry commentary and executive education. His expertise spans supply chain management, economic analysis, and applied research, making him a sought-after thought leader in the field.

Chris Pickett

Chris Pickett serves as the Chief Commercial Officer at Flock Freight, where he has been a key leader for over three and a half years. Since its founding in 2015, Flock Freight has pioneered the development of scaled shared truckload networks.

In addition to his role at Flock Freight, Chris is the Lead Analyst at Pickett Research, providing monthly commentary and forecasts on U.S. truckload market trends, including spot and contract rate movements. His dual expertise in strategic leadership and market analysis positions him as a prominent voice in the logistics and freight industry.

Paul Poziumschi

Paul Poziumschi is the Chief Economist at Transfix, bringing a strong background in data science, machine learning, and quantitative investment. His expertise lies in leveraging big data to develop predictive analytics that optimize strategic decision-making and maximize returns relative to risk.

Since joining Transfix three years ago, Paul has contributed across multiple functions, including pricing, portfolio management, and leading the data and strategy team. Now, as Chief Economist, he spearheads data research and supports the development of advanced technology and data-driven solutions for the company.

While his title suggests traditional economic analysis, Paul’s focus is on granular market trends rather than macroeconomic indicators like inflation or unemployment, making his role more aligned with data-driven insights than conventional economic functions.

Samantha Jones

Samantha Jones is the founder of Samantha Jones Consulting, a firm dedicated to enhancing sales and brand strategies for companies in the logistics industry. With a focus on increasing sustainable revenue, her firm implements customized approaches to streamline sales processes and strengthen company brands.

Samantha Jones brings expertise in freight markets and economics as the host of a podcast focused on market trends, and the author of this Truckload Market Update report. Her work combines data-driven insights with a clear understanding of industry dynamics, making her a valuable voice in the industry.

The event was separated into 4 main topics of discussion, and this Newsletter will follow the same segmentation:

  1. What is worth noting from 2024 as we head into 2025?
  2. What economic trends should we be paying attention to in 2025?
  3. What are the 2025 freight market predictions?
  4. Advice for brokers, carriers or shippers heading into 2025?

What is worth noting from 2024 as we head into 2025?

Ken Adamo on the 2024 Freight Market

"It's probably been one of the most uneventful years in my 10+ years covering the industry," Ken Adamo reflected. "Comparable to 2019, with maybe a bit of 2015 mixed in, 2024 unfolded largely as expected—it lingered without much significant change. What caught me off guard, however, was the lack of strength in the second half of the year.

While there were some positive gains of 3% to 5% year-over-year, I had anticipated more robust growth—perhaps 4% to 6%, or even 5% to 7% if I was being optimistic. The reality, though, is that lapping the challenging comparisons from 2023 left 2024 feeling like a bit of a letdown for most, except for shippers.

If I could track one unconventional metric, it’d be the cumulative golf handicaps of shippers across the market. I imagine that number dropped significantly this year, reflecting how much smoother conditions were for them in 2024."

Paul Poziumschi on the 2024 Freight Market

"I share Ken's overall sentiment," Paul Poziumschi began, acknowledging a similar perspective on the freight market's performance. Reflecting on predictions made six months earlier, he noted that their forecasting accuracy was impressive. "Our margin of prediction error was under half a percent for the last six months. We forecasted every lane, over 18,000 in total, and even when factoring in regional differences, the error stayed within one or two percent."

"There were some lanes where our forecasts were less precise, but on the whole, we were pretty close."

Despite the high accuracy, one surprise emerged for Paul and his team—capacity dynamics. "Mid-2023 saw the market start losing capacity, and by the end of the year, that trend accelerated. We expected a continued increase in capacity loss in 2024, but that didn't quite happen. As a result, the market stayed oversupplied, which prevented the rate pickup we initially predicted."

Looking forward, Paul concluded that overcapacity continues to shape the freight market as we move into 2025. "This oversupply is still defining the industry and remains a key factor in shaping the market’s direction."

Jason Miller on the 2024 Freight Market

"I was one of the biggest pessimists on where I thought 2024 would be," Jason Miller shared, reflecting on his early outlook for the year. "In general, that pessimistic outlook is what ended up playing out more than anything."

He explained that entering 2024, manufacturing was weak, and the Federal Reserve had maintained high interest rates. "I was mixed on where things would go," he continued. "I wasn't willing to make a prediction on the second half of 2024, only focusing on the first half due to the uncertainty around the Fed's actions."

Despite expectations for potential rate cuts early in the year, inflation remained higher than anticipated. "That didn't play out as we thought," Jason added.

Looking ahead to 2025, Jason is cautiously optimistic. "I'm looking for next year to be better than 2024, but the big question is how much better," he concluded. "There’s a lot of economic uncertainty right now, which makes predicting the future challenging."

Chris Pickett on the 2024 Freight Market

Chris took a more optimistic stance on the freight market outlook at the beginning of 2024, grounded in a cycle-based perspective of freight rates. Reflecting on his predictions from the previous year, Chris had anticipated an inflationary line-haul index as early as Q1, with a potential year-over-year increase of up to 40% by the end of 2024. This forecast was based on historical cycles that typically showed a predictable pattern of freight rate fluctuations.

However, by early 2024, rates fell unexpectedly, leading to what Chris described as the "St. Valentine's Day freight massacre." This period of soft market conditions was attributed to a surge in capacity, which usually leads to a drop in rates. As a result, the inflationary surge he predicted did not materialize in Q1 but was instead pushed to Q3, two quarters later than expected.

Chris also highlighted several factors contributing to the market's divergence from historical patterns, including the unexpected weakness in diesel prices, which were down more than 20% year-to-date, and the failure of industrial activity to pick up, especially in manufacturing. Despite strong consumption, industrial production and inventory-to-sales ratios remained stagnant, signaling a lack of momentum in the broader economy.

Looking ahead, Chris pointed to the closing of Q4 with inflationary signs on the ledger, but raised the key question: to what extent will there be a material improvement moving into 2025, or will it be another year of stagnation like 2024?

What economic trends should we be paying attention to in 2025?

Jason Miller on Economic Trends to Watch in 2025

As we move into 2025, Jason emphasized several key economic indicators and trends to monitor, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainty. One of the leading indicators he’s keeping an eye on is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) sub-index for new orders, which has shown some positive movement recently. However, the readings remain below the levels seen in previous strong market years, such as 2017.

Jason also pointed out a notable surge in motor vehicle sales, especially for light trucks and SUVs, which saw the third-highest seasonally adjusted sales on record for December. He speculated that this spike could be linked to the upcoming presidential election, suggesting that political events may influence consumer spending.

On the housing front, Jason highlighted that mortgage rates, currently at 6.9%, continue to suppress housing market activity. The 30-year mortgage rate is closely tied to the 10-year treasury yield, which is influenced by broader economic policy. Jason warned that the incoming administration’s policies could have significant inflationary effects, potentially affecting housing demand and, by extension, freight markets, given the correlation between housing activity and freight movement.

He also noted that commodity prices will be crucial to watch, as they affect investment in industries like agriculture and oil. While 2017 saw a boom in fracking that spurred freight demand, Jason cautioned that with oil prices at $70-75 per barrel and the U.S. already producing at record levels, there is little incentive to ramp up drilling.

In conclusion, while there are some positive signs in the economy, Jason emphasized that 2025 will be heavily influenced by economic policy, particularly regarding tariffs, making it a year of potential volatility.

Chris Pickett on Economic Trends to Watch in 2025

Chris took a more cautious but optimistic view on the economic trends shaping 2025. He emphasized that the market’s direction is still very much tied to the basic economic principles of supply and demand, particularly consumption levels. He noted that consumption has been remarkably steady, with slight upward movement, driven by the factors Jason highlighted. As long as consumption trends continue on this trajectory, Chris sees potential for industrial production to pick up, although he cautioned that growth likely won’t be rapid or dramatic.

One notable concern for Chris is the ongoing divergence between consumption and industrial production. For the past six quarters, industrial production has hovered at near-zero to slightly negative growth, while consumption has continued to rise at a modest pace. He pointed out that such a divergence typically only occurs during a severe recession, making the current economic conditions somewhat unusual.

However, there is cause for optimism, as several key indicators have recently shown signs of improvement. Volume indicators like the ATA volume index and Cass shipments, which had been in deflationary decline, bottomed out about three quarters ago and are now showing signs of recovery. Heading into Q1 2025, industrial production has leveled off, and freight volumes have stabilized, with some potential for growth.

Chris stressed that while this recovery may be slow, it’s moving in a positive direction. However, he noted that this upward trend would likely remain gradual unless there's a significant breakthrough, such as improvements in housing or other factors contributing to stronger economic activity. He also warned that risks remain, particularly with the potential for disruptive tariffs that could derail consumption and halt economic progress.

Ultimately, Chris highlighted three primary factors to watch in 2025: continued strength or an increase in consumption, industrial production, and inventory levels, all of which will influence the trajectory of freight demand in the year ahead.

Paul Poziumschi on Economic Trends to Watch in 2025

Paul offered a sobering perspective on the economic outlook for 2025, highlighting several critical uncertainties that could affect the broader economy and the trucking market specifically. He emphasized that inflation remains a persistent issue, contrary to the optimistic claims of a victory over it. Despite strong consumption in 2024, Paul pointed out some concerning signs, such as a significant rise in credit card defaults and a near-zero personal savings rate for the bottom third of the population—those most vulnerable to economic shifts.

This, he argues, signals that the momentum gained after COVID-19 may be running out, leaving little economic buffer for consumers in 2025. The aftermath of excessive liquidity and credit accumulation during the pandemic may have contributed to this, but with savings rates depleted and credit delinquencies rising, the economy may face more challenges moving forward. For trucking, while there are positive dynamics at play, Paul remains cautious, as the broader economy’s performance could derail the trucking industry's recovery.

One of the key uncertainties Paul raised is the potential impact of tariffs and inflationary pressure. With interest expenses hitting unprecedented levels—approximately $1.1 trillion per year, which is nearing the cost of Social Security—Paul sees a scenario where interest rates remain elevated for an extended period. This would place immense strain on consumers, who would have to bear the weight of higher debt service costs. He expressed doubt that consumers could fuel a recovery in 2025, especially if inflationary pressures and high interest rates persist.

In summary, Paul is wary of 2025, anticipating high volatility and potential challenges for the economy at large and the trucking market in particular. While he shares some optimism about trucking's dynamics, he stresses that much will depend on how the broader economic issues, particularly high debt and inflation, play out.

Ken Adamo on Economic Trends to Watch in 2025

Ken stated "It's hard to add something after that crew. I mean, I think the only thing I would add that hasn't already been said is there's strong evidence that we're pretty much at equilibrium now." He transitioned us into discussing freight market dynamics moving into 2025.

He observed that events like weather disruptions or natural disasters, such as hurricanes, don’t cause fundamental changes but rather act as catalysts that align with the natural market cycle. From his standpoint, the logistics market, driven by predictable events like holidays and road check weeks, etc, and is now settling into a pattern of stability. He noted that the timing of Thanksgiving this year led to a compressed shopping period, which created a spike in freight demand. This seasonal effect, combined with the current winter storms, is expected to extend the typical freight cycle into January. This extended activity into the new year could lead to a better start to 2025, with stronger demand expected for Q2, assuming this trend continues.

Ken’s view is that the more the logistics sector can smooth the transition from peak retail seasons to spring shipping demand, the better the prospects are for a solid Q2. While this is a simplified view, he seems to be cautiously optimistic that 2025 will benefit from the balancing of freight supply and demand, as long as these calendar-related and seasonal events continue to play out favorably.

What are the 2025 freight market predictions?

Chris Pickett on the 2025 Freight Market Outlook

Chris built on Ken’s perspective about the freight market, emphasizing the concept of equilibrium and how external events can have an exaggerated impact in this state. He noted that when the market is in a state of equilibrium, known events like “produce seasons” and “road check” still play their usual role, but their effects can be amplified. As he explained, “When you’re in this kind of stasis of equilibrium... the impact on the freight market will be exaggerated.”

In an equilibrium market, disruptions—such as weather events, port strikes, or challenges with the produce season—can catalyze much larger shifts in rates and capacity. Chris highlighted that over the last couple of years, the market has been at a low point, which means any changes now could have a larger-than-expected effect. He stated, “You can kind of argue, you know, is it plus five? Is it flat? Is it minus one? But in equilibrium, the market’s gonna be much more susceptible to these events.”

Looking toward 2025, Chris suggested that if the market remains in equilibrium, it would be especially vulnerable to disruptions. For example, if a port strike were to happen, or extreme weather conditions impacted the market, “those events could catalyze much more of a move.” Similarly, if the produce season faced significant challenges, it could impact the freight market more than anticipated.

Chris also noted the usual seasonal pattern of rate adjustments, where rates typically see a pullback of 10 to 15 cents from November’s peak as the market transitions into February. However, he pointed out that if cold weather continues or if an event like a port strike disrupts freight flows, rates may not follow the typical pattern. “If we see a material drawdown in terms of that normal seasonal cap... then that’s... a lower for longer dive,” he explained. He forecasted that, without a pullback, spot rates could be 30 to 35 percent higher year-over-year by the end of Q4 2025.

Looking at contract rates, Chris observed that they typically follow spot rates with a delay of one to two quarters. He forecasted that contract rates could close higher year-over-year as early as next quarter, predicting increases of 8 to 10 percent by the end of 2025. As he summarized, “I think rates are going up, how fast and to what degree is the unknown.”

In conclusion, while Chris acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding specific events, he predicted that the freight market in 2025 could see a substantial rise in rates. He projected a likely increase of at least 20 percent year-over-year by the end of 2025, with the potential for even larger increases.

Ken Adamo on the 2025 Freight Market Outlook

Ken shared similar thoughts to Chris but focused on a potential worst-case scenario. He discussed the possibility of 2025 not unfolding as expected and how that would lead to significant consequences in the freight market. Specifically, he noted that if the market doesn’t show a year-over-year increase of at least 10 to 15 percent, it could trigger major changes. As he put it, “I don’t think it needs to be 30 to 35%, but if we’re not rolling out of next year, or I guess now this year, at plus 10 to 15%, maybe a little bit better year over year, there’s going to be some pretty dramatic reshuffling of truckload capacity.”

Ken emphasized the unsustainable nature of another year like 2023 and 2024. “I don’t know anyone of any credibility that would argue that this industry can survive another year like 23 and 24,” he said. He explained that if things don’t improve, the industry would face inevitable capacity adjustments, including a “longer tail of brokerages that just aren’t able to swing it anymore.”

He highlighted that if the freight market continues to stagnate, particularly if the increase is just 2-3 percent in 2025, it could signal broader economic troubles. “If we’re having this conversation in 2026 and we only exited the year at like plus two or three percent, we’re probably in a macroeconomic recession too at that point,” Ken cautioned. “I’m not an economist, but I would have to imagine that the correlation there would have to put us in some sort of like macroeconomic calamity.”

Ken concluded that a reasonable forecast for 2025 would involve rates increasing by 10 to 15 percent year-over-year, which would result in a cumulative growth rate of about 20 percent over two years. He acknowledged the potential for a 30 to 35 percent increase, though he considered that an extreme scenario. “10 to 15 percent by the end of the year would give you a year-on-year of like 20%,” Ken summarized, “and you split the difference and say the market’s grown at 10 percent YOY over those two years.”

Jason Miller on the 2025 Freight Market Outlook

Jason pointed out a significant declines in the data from the quarterly census of employment and wages, which is the actual payroll administrative records data for the long haul truckload sector. Currently, he observed that freight volumes are at the same levels as they were in 2019, saying, “Right now capacity is right where it was in 2019, which means freight volumes are basically back to where they were in 2019.” This sets the stage for his expectations around rates and growth, especially in comparison to previous years. For spot rates, Jason predicted a year-over-year increase of 15 to 20 percent by the end of the year, saying, “I could see spot rates... the higher end is 15 to 20 percent year over year increase by the end of this year.”

Regarding contract rates, Jason made a more conservative estimate of a 10 percent year-over-year increase, based on historical trends and the use of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. "For year-over-year [contract rates], the high end would be probably 10 percent year over year," he explained, noting that this forecast assumes no major disruptions with fuel prices or other unexpected events. “That would imply a much greater connection between contract and spot rates than existed 10 years ago.”

Jason was cautious about expecting a repeat of the 2017 and 2018 market dynamics, which were shaped by a unique confluence of factors. He explained, “That was just a unique convergence of very strong growth in industrial production and manufacturing... Two absolutely horrible hurricanes, especially Harvey, meaningfully increased freight demand for a small period... And you had the ELD mandate taken effect.” These events led to a major market spike, and Jason doesn’t anticipate a similar scenario in 2025. He added, “You’re unlikely to have that combination [again].”

As for broader production growth, Jason explained that it’s likely to grow but not at the explosive rates seen in 2017 and 2018, when the 10-mile index was growing by 3.5 to 4 percent year-over-year. “This year I think we’re at 2%,” he said, showing a more measured outlook for overall economic growth.

Additionally, he flagged the potential impact of tariffs, especially given their earlier timeline in 2025 compared to previous years. "Everybody has to remember, though, 2017 wasn’t affected by tariffs. Those didn’t start kicking in until 18," Jason noted. With tariffs potentially affecting the market earlier in 2025, Jason warned that these could disrupt predictions for the second half of the year. For that reason, he decided to hold off on making any bold predictions for H2 2025, stating, “I’m not touching the second half of the year. I’ll make a prediction through June, but I’m not touching H2 2025.”

In summary, Jason’s outlook for the freight market in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with predictions for spot rates to increase by 15 to 20 percent year-over-year and a potential 10 percent increase for contract rates. However, he remains wary of the potential economic disruptions, such as tariffs, that could impact the second half of the year.

Paul Poziumschi on the 2025 Freight Market Outlook

Paul shared his outlook for the freight market in 2025, focusing on rates and the regional volatility that may characterize the year. He forecasted a general increase in rates between 14 to 15 percent for the year but highlighted that there would be considerable disparity from region to region. “Northeast probably around 20%, whereas the West we see closer to 10%,” he explained, illustrating how different regions will see varied rate movements.

Paul's approach to predicting rates is rooted in a combination of statistical modeling and seasonality analysis. He described how his team uses "processes to model two different things: seasonality and the market element." The seasonality factor plays a crucial role in shaping freight trends, as it’s influenced by weather and the nature of the products being delivered. “You’re delivering water in July or August, and those... patterns repeat themselves every year,” Paul said. However, what’s particularly interesting, according to Paul, is that the core seasonal trends seem surprisingly weak this year. “We do not see the signs of life at the core level at the most granular lane level that are good predictors for rates picking up imminently.”

Despite the weak seasonal signals, Paul’s team still anticipates rate growth, although they are cautious about the timing. “If we still predict 14%, 15% rates by the end of the year, when is it going to happen?” Paul posed, acknowledging the uncertainty around when rates will actually pick up. He forecasted a turn around May or June, saying, “We see a turn happening around May or June, where this is supposed to pick up some speed.”

Another key insight from Paul’s perspective is the growing influence of seasonality on the market, particularly in light of the weak granular markets he’s observing. He described how the seasonal effects, which were typically more predictable, might now have a more significant impact due to capacity shortages in certain regions. “At some point, even on the weak market, the lack of capacity... means that whenever things are picking up due to the nature of the lane itself, that's going to create much, much more [volatility].” He emphasized that when the market reaches seasonal peaks, especially during periods like DOT week, the need for trucks could surge dramatically, exacerbating the volatility.

Paul concluded by reinforcing that the market will likely face a lot of dispersion and volatility in 2025, advising that, "a lot of dispersion, a lot of volatility ahead." His overall prediction suggests a 14-15% increase in rates, with the caveat that timing and market conditions, especially in terms of capacity, will be critical to determining when that growth will be most pronounced.

Before wrapping up this section, Samantha said "I have already seen multiple different publications or references to growth in 2025 being backloaded to the second half of the year.

So if anyone has any final comments on that, it seems most people are saying probably steady as she goes more or less for the first two quarters, and then we'll see some momentum in Q2, and to the extent of that movement, it sounds like you all kind of fell somewhere between 10 and 15 percent, would that be in Q3, Q4?"

Chris jumped in "I suspect we'll see it earlier. I mean, it's always the easiest forecast. You know, things will stay just like they are. And then at some far out point in time, we'll see, you know, how badly it jumps."

Jason added "it could start. I mean, if you look at the one ratio between DAT's contract and spot that I always look at, 10 percent has always been the rule of thumb for when it shifts. Right now, December was like 13 and a half. January, and granted January is still really preliminary. is about 12ish. We're getting close. So, for me, it's no sooner than March. Could it flip March or April? The real question to me is going to be, how does the home building season kick off this year? And if you start seeing a robust home building market, then I think that that'll be key."

Advice for brokers, carriers or shippers heading into 2025?

Paul Poziumschi on advice for 2025

Paul pointed out that seasonality and volatility is back, and has to be managed. In his advice for navigating 2025, Paul emphasized the importance of understanding one's strengths and weaknesses, especially after two and a half years of recession. He pointed out that those still in the industry likely have a solid grasp of these areas, but the challenge will be how to leverage them in a market marked by volatility, with the potential for fluctuating margins on both sides.

Paul stressed the importance of focusing on data to navigate this uncertain landscape. He advocated for using a framework of analysis based on data, whether it’s through his company's tools or others. While acknowledging that artificial intelligence (AI) is not a magical solution, he explained that AI can help extend human insights and knowledge, enabling quicker decision-making at scale. Paul concluded by stressing that such tools will be crucial for navigating a market that’s bound to be full of surprises in 2025.

Chris Pickett on advice for 2025

Chris expanded on Paul’s point by emphasizing the importance of visibility and understanding market dynamics through good data. He highlighted the need for businesses to have strong control systems that allow them to react to changes, especially as spot rates start to accelerate faster than contract rates. This shift leads to a "battle" between spot and contract rates, where carriers and brokers may start to prioritize spot loads over contract tenders, and procurement teams will work hard to ensure contract rates are honored.

He stressed that shippers who embrace innovation and strategic carrier programs will be better positioned to navigate these changes. Regardless of whether you’re on the sell-side, buy-side, or in the middle as a broker, Chris emphasized the need to understand what’s happening within your own network. This includes knowing where you have contract positions, how they’re performing, and assessing exposure to the spot market.

Chris pointed out that having the right tools, such as a tech platform or TMS (transportation management system), is critical for taking action based on data. Businesses should be prepared to act quickly as the market shifts, making nimbleness and velocity key. He concluded by stressing the importance of not just having data, but also forming a well-informed opinion on where the market is headed and how to react in different scenarios. In summary, it’s about building a foundation of data systems that allow for quick, strategic decisions.

Jason Miller on advice for 2025

Jason cautioned against expecting drastic market shifts like those seen in 2020 or 2022. In 2020, the market changed abruptly, with rates spiking in just a month, and in 2022, spot rates dropped sharply. However, he believes 2025 will not see such extreme swings and is more likely to resemble the smoother, steadier market cycles of 2013-2014, where rates increased steadily over time, finishing up 20% year-over-year.

Jason emphasized the importance of using multiple data sources to navigate the market, such as load-to-truck ratios, spot rates, and industrial production trends. He also highlighted the variability within the industry—2025 may not be a strong year overall, but some businesses could still perform well despite the overall market conditions. He reminded everyone that, although some carriers thrived in 2023, many went out of business in 2022, with 30% of firms that started between 2020 and 2021 closing by 2022.

Jason advised that success in 2025 will depend on understanding your specific position in the market. Even if the year seems unfavorable, businesses that are aligned with strong shippers could have a good year, while those relying on struggling shippers may face challenges.

Ken Adamo on advice for 2025

Rates are expected to go up, but it's unclear when and by how much, making it important to manage expectations and communicate uncertainties with shippers. He advised brokers to focus on shorter contract lengths and have honest discussions with shippers about the rate uncertainties. Additionally, enhancing carrier vetting, management processes, and governance is crucial for brokers.

For shippers, Ken suggested understanding that the "good times" are likely over for the next few years, with tighter conditions and rising rates ahead. While service might not be heavily compromised, rate pressures are already being felt, and bidding is becoming more challenging. He reminded carriers that the market still has a large number of active interstate motor carriers, so it’s not a situation where only a few carriers are available.

Finally, Ken recommended that carriers review their insurance, taxes, and other business preparations as they move into the new year. Even if they've made it this far, it’s important to invest prudently for the upcoming cycle.

That concludes the summarized version of the 2025 Freight Market Outlook. Thank you for reading. Next month, we will resume normal monthly truckload market update reports.

Where am I heading next?

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Closing

Thank you so much for reading and supporting the Truckload Market Update Report, produced by Samantha Jones Consulting LLC. Samantha Jones Consulting focuses on helping companies in the logistics industry better brand and sell their services to create sustainable revenue growth, and support their company growth goals!

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